When it comes to the jobs report Friday, investors can’t seem to make up their mind what they want. The November nonfarm payrolls report is one of the last major economic data points before the Federal Reserve holds its Dec. 17-18 meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to squeeze in one more rate cut before the end of the year. But whether a weak or strong number come Friday will be better for the interest rate outlook, and for markets, is unclear, with observers on both sides of the argument. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 214,000 jobs last month, according to the consensus among economists polled by Dow Jones. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 John Flood, head of Americas equities sales trading for Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, said Tuesday he expects markets will cheer a softer report, identifying a headline number in the 150,000 to 200,000 range as the “sweet spot” for stocks . If that below-consensus report is what traders get Friday, he said, the S & P 500 can rally 0.5% to 1%. To be sure, Goldman Sachs’ official forecast shows a 235,000 job increase in nonfarm payrolls, a figure that could mean stocks fall Friday, Flood wrote. On the other hand, JPMorgan traders expect that a strong jobs report will be just the fuel to keep the market going higher, and officially forecasts the U.S. to have added 275,000 jobs last month. The bank expects a number that lands somewhere between 230,000 and 300,000, with unemployment ticking higher, will correlate with a 0.25% to 1% rally in the S & P 500. If the U.S. added 200,000 to 230,000 jobs last month, a number that the market would translate into meaning the Fed is on track to cut rates at its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, then the broader index can add 0.50% to 0.75%. As it is, stocks are quite possibly priced for perfection heading into the report, raising the stakes for the jobs report to come in just right. All three major averages posted fresh all-time highs this week. Year to date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 19% higher, the S & P 500 is up by more than 27%, and the Nasdaq Composite has surged more than 31%.
Does the market want a strong or weak jobs report? Traders aren’t sure
