Good Monday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.
DRIVING THE DAY
IT’S WHITE PAPER DAY: The government’s shake-up of legal migration laws finally lands today, as Keir Starmer and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper look to steal a march on Nigel Farage’s Reform UK by cutting migration before the 2029 election. Forget about Donald Trump for a few sweet hours — this morning in Westminster is all about Starmer and Labour’s big hope to arrest the seemingly unstoppable rise of Britain’s populist right.
Monday morning Special K: Downing Street is going in all guns blazing to start a week that may quickly turn out to be all about war instead (more on that below). Starmer himself is tasked with the hard sell this morning with an 8.30 a.m. press conference from the briefing room in No. 9, where he will pledge to end the “failed experiment in open borders” and declare that gaining the right to stay in Britain is a “privilege that must be earned, not a right.”
Which is … probably as far as any leader of the left(ish) has gone in their efforts to sound the part on migration — and is a fair few points more radical on the rhetoric scale than half-heartedly slapping “controls on immigration” on mugs. And even that was controversial at the time.
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But obviously: The big subtext to all of this is Reform’s gains in the polls for months and then in reality 12 days ago. While Labour made a big deal in last year’s election campaign of the need to smash the gangs that led to rocketing irregular migration across the Channel, the party’s vague manifesto promise to reduce net migration didn’t make it into Starmer’s “missions” … “first steps” … or December’s “milestones.”
And now: With a party of the right promising a freeze on “non-essential migration,” we have a Labour leader and prime minister looking to combat this with a mixture of tougher rhetoric and a shake-up of migration policy that one senior official described to Playbook as the most radical since Britain left the EU. “We will do everything in our power to make sure that net migration is reduced. That’s what the public voted for [in 2024], and that’s what they wanted to see,” the official added.
Beyond Reform … officials also argue there is a progressive case for cutting migration, and that there are too many people currently in the U.K. out of work who could use a better shot at getting a decent job. Expect to hear Starmer and Cooper gamely bat away questions about their Farage worries with those lines, while Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has an op-ed in the Mirror on that theme.
The choreography: Shortly after Starmer has taken questions from hacks, the 69-page white paper will be published at 9.30 a.m. here. After missing it off of her Sunday show round, Cooper will do an interview with GB News to air at noon — before delivering a Commons statement on the changes from anytime after 3.30 p.m. depending on UQs or other statements.
Hang on: Cooper has one more intriguing nugget on her agenda: a filmed interview with the Politics UK X account this morning. Yep, that’s the @PoliticsForAli offshoot, which rose to prominence aggregating the work of journalists into soundbites that it fires out to its massive audience. But before that, we get Starmer.
Some of what Starmer will say: “Every area of the immigration system, including work, family and study, will be tightened up so we have more control,” Starmer will say in his presser in just over an hour. “Enforcement will be tougher than ever and migration numbers will fall.”
Some of what Labour will do: Raise English language requirements to ensure migrants who come here are, as Starmer will say, committed to “integration” … tighten the rules around automatic settlement and citizenship … and adopt other measures to make it tougher for firms to hire overseas workers, particularly in the social care sector (which aren’t going down well with Unison boss Christina McAnea). My colleague Mason Boycott-Owen had a thorough round-up in Sunday Crunch after most of the plans made it into the weekend newspapers.
Plus: Starmer confirmed to the Sun that the government will change the law to force judges to throw out certain cases in which foreign offenders are granted permission to stay after invoking Article 8 of the ECHR (the right to a family life). Starmer said he will make sure “it is parliament that makes the rules on immigration” and that he will “inject common sense into the system.” Though it isn’t clear how that will work, given “common sense” isn’t exactly a legal term.
And then come the questions: The Conservatives and Reform are trying to point out one fairly big omission in the plan: the lack of a full net migration target, which both parties said shows Starmer ain’t so serious about the full thing. Previous caps imposed by the former have not gone to plan. But at the same time, the white paper is set to include only promises to bring net migration down — which the ONS already projects will happen — and issue 50,000 fewer visas for low-skilled workers by the end of the year.
Which the opposition argues … is low-hanging fruit, basically, given Britain has been dealing with net migration figures in the high hundreds of thousands since the 2020s and Boris Johnson’s tenure in Downing Street. The Tories say they’ll force a vote on introducing a cap today.
Et tu, Rachel? Starmer may well also be asked whether he’s prepared, if necessary, to overrule the power of the Treasury and his Chancellor Rachel Reeves — given the purse-string holders’ long-standing orthodoxy that migration is a good thing for economic growth. In his Sun column, Harry Cole reports the Treasury has already been kicking back at the white paper.
On that same note: There have been persistent reports of Cooper and Reeves being at loggerheads over the prospect of a youth mobility scheme with the EU, which appears to be firmly on the table for the Brexit-reset summit this time next week. Who fancies explaining today — barely a week after striking a deal to make it easier for Indian workers to get temporary visas — how letting young Europeans come to work in the U.K. squares with today’s rhetoric?
Watch this space: The European Commission has been promising “agenda highlights” a week before the summit, to appear here.
IN OTHER DEAL NEWS: It’s shaping up to be a big day in the U.S., where Donald Trump is promising the details on an apparent trade agreement with China … and an executive order that will cut prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices … before flying to Riyadh very late tonight. Our Stateside colleagues had details of the expected executive order last week.
Now hear this: Thankfully POLITICO is launching a new daily podcast out in the states featuring the dulcet Stockport tones of D.C. Playbooker and daily pod veteran Jack Blanchard, alongside his colleague Dasha Burns, who has been named Playbook chief correspondent in Washington. The Playbook Podcast — or Politics at Burns and Blanchard’s — launches today.
THE UKRAINE WAITING GAME
WEIMAR IN PUBLIC: European foreign ministers from the Weimar+ group will assemble at Lancaster House shortly for the latest drum-banging about the war in Ukraine. After months of discussions like these resulting in … not a lot, the game has seemingly changed in the wake of Saturday’s bro leaders’ trip to Kyiv — with both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin now saying they are prepared to meet each other on Thursday in Turkey. David Lammy will today lead efforts to pile more pressure on Putin to not just show up, but to take the idea of peace seriously. Best of luck.
How we got here: Putin’s offer of talks in Turkey came in response to Western allies’ ultimatum urging a 30-day unconditional ceasefire to avoid fresh sanctions. The Russian president ignored the demand, instead proposing direct talks to throw the pressure back onto Zelenskyy — but within an hour, Zelenskyy agreed, even as European leaders insisted talks can’t begin without the ceasefire. In between the Putin and Zelenskyy words on Sunday was, obvs, a confusing Donald Trump Truth Social post where he didn’t reiterate his Saturday call for the fighting to end immediately.
News torpedo: But if those talks do take place — and it’s a big if, of course — they’d dwarf anything else that happens this week, bringing direct discussions between the nations for the first time since Moscow’s invasion began more than three years ago.
However … we aren’t there yet. Zelenskyy said he still expected a full ceasefire to start today, something the Kremlin says will only come after negotiations. The hope in European capitals is that Trump’s changing tone toward Putin — of the more “fed-up” variety — is shifting the dynamic and making the kind of compromises needed from Putin to get to peace more likely … though there’s been little shift in the war itself for months.
In the meantime: Expect Lammy and his comrades from France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Poland and the EU to be asked for a direct response to Russia’s refusal to adhere to the ceasefire demand as they speak to press on the doorstep over the next couple of hours. Do the foreign ministers have a view on whether Zelenskyy should travel to Turkey even without a ceasefire in the bag?
After that: Lammy will also announce fresh sanctions on “actors supporting Russia’s illegal invasion,” though the Foreign Office provided scant detail last night.
AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: The Elysée has clapped back at conspiracists who levied a wild accusation of cocaine use by European leaders who met in Ukraine on the weekend … with a little meme action of its own. And who said SW1 social media was wild?
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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
WILDCARD QUESTION FOR KEIR STARMER TODAY: Does the PM still back Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill? The Mail’s Jason Groves and others reported over the weekend that Downing Street is cooling on the idea and the PM will miss this Friday’s next vote on the legislation.
WATCH FOR FIREWORKS: Liz Kendall faces DWP questions in the Commons from 2.30 p.m., after lots more weekend reporting about an impending rebellion on her planned welfare cuts.
Eyes emoji: Backbench Labour MPs have also been invited to a “feedback session” at 5 p.m. with reps on the parliamentary committee of the Parliamentary Labour Party, my colleague Dan Bloom texts in. It sounds like a good forum to air some of those concerns … so no wonder a message to MPs beforehand said the session “will not be repeated if there is any leaking about the meeting in any way shape or form.”
Off the agenda, however … are new PLP rules that have kicked up a bit of a stink with some in the party. The changes were delayed to allow a consultation which is going on separately.
SOUNDS LIKE A SET-UP FOR A FRIENDLY CHAT: Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch will meet EU Ambassador Pedro Serrano at 5.30 p.m. for a chat about how she plans to reverse any Brexit-reset deal struck by Starmer which doesn’t meet her five tests (as set out in Sunday’s Telegraph).
BIG THREATS: Nurses may go on strike again unless ministers change their “completely unacceptable” offer of a 2.8 percent pay increase, Royal College of Nursing General Secretary Nicola Ranger told the Guardian. The body’s annual conference kicks off in Liverpool today, with Ranger making her congress keynote speech at 1.45 p.m. Expect a sobering talk on the NHS and nurses’ working conditions.
GRADS ARE BADS: Cabinet Office supremo Pat McFadden is moving ahead with plans to make the civil service less dominated by Oxbridge graduates, the Times’ Aubrey Allegretti reports. Playbook hears there’s more to come on Whitehall reform on Wednesday.
TWO BIRDS: Two-thirds of Reform UK supporters say the government should do more to tackle poverty, a poll for Big Issue by YouGov has found. Big Issue founder and crossbench peer John Bird has pt up an amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing & Schools Bill to compel the government to set targets for reducing child poverty, in the hope of both forcing the government’s hand and fighting Reform.
NO MORE HALLOWEEN NURSE COSTUMES: The term “nurse” will become legally protected following campaigns to stop rogue beauticians from using the title, the Mirror’s Martin Bagot reports.
ALSO ON THE GOVERNMENT GRID: Eligible working parents of children who will be 9 months old before September can apply today for access to 30 hours per week of funded childcare. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has done an interview with the Mail’s Harriet Line, describing it as a game-changer for working women.
WHERE GOVERNMENT POLICY IS BORN: My colleague Dan Bloom spoke to two dozen people for a nugget-filled stocktake on the think tanks battling to draw up government policy — helped by the government. With the machine flat out with the week-to-week, Dan hears No. 10 and departments have raised their engagement with think tanks (particularly the friendlier TBI, IPPR and Labour Together), attending dinners and commissioning advice directly. Yet some wonks are second-guessing Labour’s desires and “self-censoring” as they worry about losing access to the heart of power.
FEELING BREEZY: Infrastructure developer Cerulean Winds said its planned Aspen floating wind farm in the North Sea will create more than 1,000 jobs. Energy Minister Michael Shanks is visiting Ardersier port in the Scottish Highlands to meet with Cerulean Winds staff.
CALL TO ACTION: Former subpostmaster Alan Bates has called for an independent body to oversee compensation claims for wronged subpostmasters. Speaking to ITV’s Good Morning after “Mr Bates vs The Post Office” won a BAFTA Special Award, Bates added that he has “no doubt” there will be criminal prosecutions for miscarriages of justice against subpostmasters.
COURT CIRCULAR: “Father Ted” co-creator Graham Linehan faces charges of harassment without violence and criminal damage at Westminster Magistrates’ Court at 2 p.m.
SW1 EVENTS: Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli is speaking at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference at 9 a.m … The IFG hosts an event discussing the “rewiring of the state” with remarks from Chair David Sainsbury at 10 a.m. (details here) … the Independent Pharmacies Association is in parliament from 6:30 p.m., with local pharmacy representatives and doctors on hand to check blood pressure after a stressful few, er, years in politics … Comedian Matt Forde hosts a live Political Party podcast recording with Health Secretary Wes Streeting at 7.30 p.m. (tickets here).
REPORTS OUT TODAY: The mental health of women and girls affected by domestic abuse should be a “key priority” in upcoming government strategies, Woman’s Trust says … A “year of service” program should be introduced to help young Scots gain skills for the workforce, a report from Gordon Brown’s Our Scottish Future think tank recommends.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with work and pensions questions … and remaining stages of the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill. Lib Dem MP Joshua Reynolds has the adjournment debate on support for families of British nationals murdered abroad.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Sits from 4.30 p.m. debating an e-petition relating to the Income Tax Personal Allowance (led by Labour MP Lewis Atkinson).
On committee corridor: Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler discusses the best use of private finance to fund infrastructure projects with the Public Accounts Committee (3.30 p.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with the introduction of Conservative peers Amanda Spielman and Alister Jack … oral questions on implementing the recommendations of the Buckland Review of Autism Employment, increasing trade between the U.K. and the U.S., and ensuring mobile phones are kept out of schools … third reading of the Armed Forces Commissioner Bill … consideration of commons amendments to the Bank Resolution (Recapitalisation) Bill … consideration of commons amendments Data (Use and Access) Bill … an urgent question repeat on trade negotiations … and Day Five of the committee stage of the Renters’ Rights Bill.
BEYOND THE M25
LEAST SURPRISING NEWS EVER: The police probe into SNP finances made Scots less trusting of Scottish government ministers and civil servants — but only among those who oppose Scottish independence, according to research by the Scottish Election Study written up by the Times.
RUH-ROH: A huge fire that burned the largest shopping center in Warsaw to the ground a year ago was set deliberately by people acting on behalf of Russia, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced. More from POLITICO.
HAMAS PROMISE: Hamas says the last living American hostage in Gaza, Edan Alexander, will be released on Tuesday as part of efforts to establish a ceasefire with Israel, Reuters reports.
TENTATIVE PEACE: Both India and Pakistan declared victory after a ceasefire was declared over the weekend. The fragile peace appeared to be holding despite early reports that fighting had resumed. The Guardian has a write-up.
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MEDIA ROUND
Shadow Crime Minister Matt Vickers broadcast round: Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC (9.10 a.m.).
Also on BBC Breakfast: Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice (7.30 a.m.) … Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp (9.15 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain: Former Reform UK Co-Deputy Leader Ben Habib (7.10 a.m.) … former subpostmaster Alan Bates (8.15 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Tony Stein, chief executive of care home operator Healthcare Management Solutions (7 a.m.) … Reform UK immigration and justice spokesperson Ann Widdecombe (7.30 a.m.) … Migration Observatory Director Madeleine Sumption (8.05 a.m.) … Patrick Spence, executive producer of “Mr Bates vs The Post Office” (8.20am).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Member of Ukrainian parliament Kira Rudik (7.15 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: IPPR’s Associate Director for Migration, Trade and Communities Marley Morris (8.20 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Danny Beales … Shadow Farming Minister Robbie Moore … American Institute for Boys and Men President Richard Reeves … journalist and broadcaster Dawn Neesom.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: The battle for Keir Starmer’s brain.
Daily Express: Migrants must wait ten years to become British.
Daily Mail: No cap on migrants in Labour’s crackdown.
Daily Mirror: Weight-loss jabs ‘cut cancer risk.’
Daily Star: Malteaser.
Financial Times: Trump tariffs hasten China’s push to cut foreign parts from supply chains.
i: Migrants must earn right to stay in UK and improve their English in new Labour crackdown.
Metro: I’ll face Putin to get peace.
The Daily Telegraph: Starmer to shut ECHR migrant loophole.
The Guardian: Starmer to toughen migration rules in challenge to Reform.
The Sun: 50 Cent rapper lives at asylum hotel.
The Times: Migrants must earn their right to remain.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sunny with some clouds — but watch out, there are yellow warnings for thunderstorms. High 23C, low 13C.
NEW GIG: Maria Herron has started as a comms SpAd to Cabinet Office Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds, replacing James Bevan, who left to join Portland.
JOB ADS: CCHQ is hiring a political adviser … Independent MP Adnan Hussain is looking for a comms officer.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TUESDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak … North Norfolk MP Steff Aquarone … Tory peer Mark Lancaster … former SNP MP Patricia Gibson … Labour peer Helena Kennedy … Labour peer Tom Sawyer … Tory peer and last governor of Hong Kong Chris Patten.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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