LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — You can blame John Thompson and Georgetown. Or Billy Tubbs and Oklahoma. Or even Dean Smith himself.
My research suggests those three gentlemen are responsible for the “It’s hard to beat a team three times,” narrative that percolates around the University of Kentucky’s NCAA men’s Midwest Regional semifinal game against Tennessee Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The Wildcats dispatched the Vols by five points in Knoxville on Jan. 28 and again by 11 two weeks later at Rupp Arena.
Now Mark Pope’s team is tasked with defeating Rick Barnes and the Vols again to advance to the Elite Eight.
Las Vegas does not believe Kentucky can do it. The Vols are favored by 4.5 points at DraftKings.
The analytics formulas at Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik and Evan Miya question whether the Wildcats can do it, tilting toward Tennessee. That’s primarily because Barnes’ team ranks considerably higher than UK in defensive efficiency. Tennessee is third, UK 45th.
Where did this narrative begin? It likely started in 1985 when Villanova lost to Patrick Ewing and Georgetown twice in the regular season before the Wildcats toppled the Hoyas, 66-64, in the NCAA title game at Rupp Arena in one of the title game’s biggest upsets.
Three seasons later, it happened again. Top-ranked Oklahoma beat Kansas by eight points twice during the regular season. But Danny Manning led the Jayhawks to an 83-79 upset victory at the 1988 title game in Kansas City.
Then Smith, the Tar Heels’ legendary coach, gave the concept a Hall of Fame endorsement by writing, “It was extremely hard beating a good team three times in a row,” in his autobiography.
Not really.
You can look it up. Actually, you don’t have to look it up. I already have.
You know the Duke team that many consider to win this NCAA title? They’ve already handled North Carolina three times this season.
How about Bruce Pearl and Auburn? The Tigers have beaten Ole Miss by 10, 30 and 5 this season — and might be asked to beat the Rebels a fourth time in the South Regional final.
And you likely have not forgotten that Alabama has already defeated UK three times — and the margin grew in the final two meetings.
Yes, you can beat a team three times in one season. It happens all the time.
*The NCAA men’s basketball tournament record book says that Steve Fisher of Michigan is the only coach to win a national championship in his first season as a head coach.
Only eight others made the Final Four in their first season. That’s a list that includes Denny Crum, who did at at Louisville in 1972 as well as Hubert Davis, who directed North Carolina to the title game three years ago.
Fisher won his national title at Michigan in 1989 — in his first six games as a head coach. Bo Schembechler fired Bill Frieder prior to the tournament when he learned that Frieder was chasing the head coaching position at Arizona State.
The only guy who can match Fisher in the 2025 tournament is Kevin Smith at BYU, who came to the Cougars from the NBA. He’s truly a rookie coach.
What Mark Pope at Kentucky (as well as John Calipari at Arkansas and Dusty May at Michigan) are attempting to do is reminiscent of another familiar story line:
Win a national title in the first season at a new job.
The last coach to do that was … Tubby Smith, who scored at Kentucky in 1998, his first season after leaving Georgia to replace Rick Pitino with the Wildcats.
Kentucky claimed that title at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, which will host the men’s Final Four on April 5 and 7. That will be a storyline next week if the Wildcats win twice in Indianapolis.
That UK team started the tournament as a 2-seed, not a 3-seed like Pope’s team. And the Wildcats won their regional in St. Petersburg, Florida, not Indianapolis.
*John Calipari, Overachiever.
Maybe disrespect is exactly what Calipari needed to get his mojo flowing in the NCAA Tournament again.
Arkansas, a team that features three McDonald’s all-Americans, has been shoved into the role of Cinderella in this Sweet Sixteen.
The Razorbacks, a 10-seed, are the only double-digit seed still competing in the men’s tournament.
It’s even more remarkable when you look at Calipari’s career record in the NCAA Tournament.
This is his 24th trip to the party — five at Massachusetts; six at Memphis; a dozen at Kentucky and one with the Razorbacks.
This is the first time Calipari has coached a double-digit seed.
His lowest previous seeds at his other jobs?
The 2014 Julius Randle/Harrison twins team was an 8-seed when the Wildcats lost in the national championship game to UConn in Arlington, Texas.
In 2003 and 2004, his first two seasons at Memphis, Calipari’s teams were No. 7 seeds that failed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
And none of his five teams at UMass were seeded worse than three.
Think about this: Last weekend Calipari knocked out Kansas and Bill Self as well as Rick Pitino and St. John’s, two Hall of Fame coaches with a combined 112 NCAA Tournament victories as well as four national titles.
In his last three seasons at Kentucky, Calipari was knocked out in the first weekend by Shaheen Holloway of Saint Peter’s, Jerome Tang of Kansas State and Greg Kampe of Oakland, three guys with a combined record of 2 NCAA Tournament victories.
Madness, indeed.
*As a long-time voter in the Associated Press men’s college basketball poll, I enjoy looking back at the preseason Top 25 poll and compare it to the NCAA field.
How would I grade our performance as forecasters?
At the Sweet Sixteen marker, I’d give us a B-minus
Eleven of the Sweet Sixteen teams made the pre-season poll and the four other teams also received votes. The only major whiff was coach Kevin Willard and Maryland, which earned a single vote for No. 25.
Not incredible. But not awful.
Here is the AP preseason ranking of the 16 teams still playing:
- Alabama: No. 2
- Houston: No. 4
- Duke: No. 7
- Arizona: No. 10
- Auburn: No. 11
- Tennessee: No. 12
- Purdue: No. 14
- Arkansas: No. 16
- Florida: No. 21
- Kentucky: No. 23
- Ole Miss: No. 24
- Texas Tech: No. 29
- Michigan State: No. 33
- Michigan: No. 34
- BYU: No. 35
- Maryland: No. 54
There were plenty of major whiffs that earned too much hype. Top-ranked Kansas exited in its first game. North Carolina was given the gift of the final at-large berth by the tournament selection committee and was bounced by Ole Miss.
Three preseason Top 25 squads — Indiana No. 17; Cincinnati No. 20 and Rutgers No. 25 — failed to make the 68-team field.
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