Badenoch facing ‘nightmare’ local elections as Reform hopes to realign UK politics

More than 13 million people are eligible to vote in next month’s English local elections – and their verdict could help shape British politics for years to come.

Nigel Farage is the leader aiming highest, insisting that his ultimate aim is for Reform UK to supplant the Conservatives as the leading force on the right and as the main opposition to Labour.

With Kemi Badenoch struggling to make an impact as Tory leader, the omens are good for Reform as it consistently runs Labour close in national opinion polls, leaving the Conservatives limping behind in a poor third.

Whether those hypothetical levels of support are translated into real votes will be tested on 1 May, as well as at the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election the same day.

And if some of the wilder forecasts of Reform and Labour figures are borne out, the county hall contests from Cornwall to Northumberland could mark the beginning of the biggest shift in British politics for decades with the Tories ultimately ousted as the UK’s dominant party of the Right. The stakes really are that high.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, told The i Paper: “For Nigel Farage momentum is everything right now. The Tories are currently running scared of Reform – if the party does as well as some are suggesting, then that might just turn into full-blown panic. If Reform underperforms, they might at least be able to hold their nerve for a little while longer.”

He added: “For Badenoch expectations are so low – given how well her party did when these seats were last fought – that however badly the Conservatives do, she’ll probably manage to escape with her leadership, if not her dignity, intact this time around. Next year, however, could well be a different matter.”

A ‘none of the above’ election

Nor can Sir Keir Starmer allow himself to be complacent when the results are counted. All the signs are that the current lack of enthusiasm for a newish government elected just over nine months ago will be reflected in an anaemic showing by Labour.

Disillusioned previous supporters are being wooed by Reform from the Right and the Lib Dems and Greens from the Left. The mood in Labour HQ is said by one insider to be “fatalistic”.

The polling expert Lord Hayward forecast that Tories and Labour alike were in for a bad night, adding: “It’s a none of the above election.”

He said the contests pointed to a potential realignment of politics across the political spectrum “which may or may not last”.

Badenoch’s nightmare is that the Tories are defending more than 950 seats in “true blue” shire counties won at the height of Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce” in 2021, compared with around 300 held by Labour and 230 held by the Liberal Democrats.

The only way is down for Badenoch and the only question is how many Tory councillors are given their marching orders. Could it be as many as 500?

The Conservatives are facing varied challengers in different parts of the country, with Reform and the Lib Dems threatening to oust the party from previous strongholds.

Nigel Farage on the march

Nigel Farage’s footsoldiers have high hopes in previously Tory-loyal Lincolnshire. The Tories scooped up more than three-quarters of the council seats in 2021, but Reform also has strong support across the pro-Brexit county and won one of its five parliamentary seats last year in Boston and Skegness.

Alongside the council contests, the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor will be elected, with the former Tory minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns giving Reform an even chance of winning its first mayorality.

Reform is also targeting neighbouring Nottinghamshire, home to one of its five MPs, Lee Anderson. According to one projection, the party could top the poll in this “red wall” county captured by the Tories in 2021. In normal times, Labour would hope to recapture this post-industrial area, but calculations are further complicated by the strong presence of independents.

The importance to Labour of the East Midlands was underlined by Sir Keir’s decision to launch his council election campaign in Derbyshire, which has become a key battleground between Labour and the Tories. The Conservatives won an overall 30-seat majority on the council in 2021, and theoretically Labour should be optimistic about overturning it. However, this is another council where a poll has suggested Reform could come first.

Labour fell just short of winning Durham County last time and will be deeply disappointed if it fails to take outright power next month. Ominously for the party, though, Reform performed strongly in the county at the general election and is forecast to make a slew of gains. In a campaign visit, Mr Farage claimed that his party’s tanks are “on the lawns of the red wall”.

The only Labour-held council up for grabs, the City of Doncaster, where Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has his parliamentary base, also looks vulnerable to Reform despite Labour winning three-quarters of council seats last time.

Tory alarm bells are ringing in their current bastion of Kent, where the party holds 56 of the 81 seats. A survey forecast that Reform could come from almost nowhere to run them close – or even outpoll them – although there are areas of strong support for Labour, such as the Medway towns, and for the Lib Dems.

As well as Farage, the other party boss with good reason to be optimistic is Sir Ed Davey, who last year led the Liberal Democrats to their biggest ever haul of parliamentary seats.

Ed Davey riding high

The Lib Dems are targeting Gloucestershire, where they need 12 gains to seize control for the first time of a council where the Conservatives have historically been the biggest force.

Similarly they aspire to take power in Cambridgeshire, where they have come second to the Tories for nearly 30 years but are now the biggest party thanks to defections and by-elections over the last four years.

They are also confident in Shropshire, where the Lib Dems have been steadily building strength and believe the slim Tory majority can be overturned.

The Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all have ambitions in Hertfordshire, where the Conservatives start with a comfortable overall majority with the Lib Dems second. But Labour performed stunningly well in the county in the general election and the party will want to show it is consolidating support in the Home Counties.

A three-way contest is also in prospect in Lancashire, where the Tory majority has fallen to six over the last four years but Labour needs 17 gains to resume overall control. All these calculations could be overturned by the expected strong performance of Reform in a classic “bellwether” area.

Where are the elections on 1 May?

14 county councils:
A county council runs a county and deals with things like waste and recycling, libraries, trading standards, planning and social care. They will work alongside smaller borough or district councils which may run leisure centres and rubbish collections. The following councils will hold full elections.
– Cambridgeshire
– Derbyshire
– Devon
– Gloucestershire
– Hertfordshire
– Kent
– Lancashire
– Leicestershire
– Lincolnshire
– Nottinghamshire
– Oxfordshire
– Staffordshire
– Warwickshire
– Worcestershire

The following county councils were due to hold elections but they have been postponed until 2026 because of plans to devolve and reorganise the administration of these areas:
– East Sussex
– Essex
– Hampshire
– Norfolk
– Suffolk
– Surrey
– West Sussex

Eight unitary authorities:
These are councils were there is just one tier of local government which carries out all the responsibilities of county and district councils. The following councils will hold full elections:
– Buckinghamshire
– Cornwall
– County Durham
– North Northamptonshire
– Northumberland
– Shropshire
– West Northamptonshire

The following unitary authorities were due to hold elections but these have been postponed due to local government reorganisation
– Thurrock
– Isle of Wight

One metropolitan borough council
These are councils, like unitary authorities, which run all services but in urban areas.
– Doncaster

Four Combined authority mayors (also known as Metro mayors)
These are directly elected mayors who will chair their combined authority – two or more local councils which are collaborating across boundaries.

– Cambridge and Peterborough
– Greater Lincolnshire (to be elected for the first time)
– Hull and East Yorkshire (to be elected for the first time)
– West of England

Two directly elected mayors
These are mayors directly elected to run a local authority
– Doncaster
– North Tyneside

One Parliamentary constituency by-election
– Runcorn and Helsby

Others
– Isles of Scilly