After finally receiving the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate cut, investors are now bracing for the upcoming September jobs report.
Citi head of US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser joins Catalysts to discuss the Fed’s decision and the outlook for the labor market.
“Both the Fed and the market now are a little bit more focused on growth data. So any growth data right now is probably going to carry a little more weight than it otherwise would have,” Kaiser tells Yahoo Finance. Thus, next Friday’s jobs report will be critical, especially amid concerns of weakness in the labor market.
He adds, “What we learned from the Fed is that they’re cutting. We’re not exactly sure why. And that’s really the question for markets.”
Kaiser explains that if the cut was a gradual move while the economy is in a relatively healthy position, it would be “hugely bullish” for equities. On the other hand, if the cut was influenced by labor market weakness, it would cause some turmoil for equities. In that case, he explains, “Rate cuts aren’t going to be enough to help equities.”
As the market braces for the September jobs report, Kaiser expects the print to come in “very low” at 70,000 payrolls. If this were to be seen, markets would likely respond poorly.
“Risk reward in the equity market is a lot worse than it has been over the previous two years. That’s very much related to a decelerating labor economy. And next Friday is priced as a big event. And it is a big event. And it’s going to help determine the direction of both policy and the markets in our view,” he argues.
Watch the video above to find out how Kaiser thinks investors should be positioned going into the year-end.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts.
This post was written by Melanie Riehl
