As we step into 2025, the tech world finds itself at a crossroads.
1. Stablecoins Take the Throne: Swift Turns 50, the Global Payments System Turns to Stone
Ah, Swift. Like a trusty old Volvo that hasn’t had an oil change since the Nixon administration, Swift turns a sprightly 50 this year. For a payments system mainly used in $190 trillion of cross-border transactions annually, it’s time for a makeover.
Stablecoins have emerged as the sleek, efficient digital rails of the payments’ world – at least for B2B cross-border transactions. While banks mostly cling to legacy systems, stablecoins have quietly (and predictably) become the go-to digital rails for global commerce. Significant growth expected in 2025 and beyond.
Swift has served its purpose, but much like your parents’ VHS collection, it’s charming only in retrospect. With stablecoins offering cost-effective, predictable transactions, businesses finally have a tool to not lose 3% (and their sanity) every time they move money across borders. Happy Birthday, Swift. You’ll always have 1973.
2. Bitcoin Breaks $500K: The “Digital Gold” Everyone Mocked is Now an ETF Darling
Bitcoin sceptics have had a tough year. First, the ETFs rolled in. Then Trump made it a political play. And now, whispers of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve have sent “shockwaves” across markets.
Large buyers – from institutions to entire sovereign funds – have been absorbing the asset’s limited supply. Meanwhile, Bitcoin infrastructure is finally coming through and growing. The Lightning Network, once the Bitcoin nerds’ pet project, has emerged as the killer app. Instant, low-cost payments? Yes, please.
Price predictions were once the domain of internet cranks. But here we are, at $500,000 per coin. If you sold at $5,000, you are probably scrolling LinkedIn in despair right now. Meanwhile, new business models are thriving, built atop Bitcoin as digital money – a concept that, ironically, sounds almost too simple to succeed?
3. AI Investment Activity: Where Dreams Go to Die (Unless You’re a Big Tech Monopoly)
The AI gold rush has ended – at least for independents. The good news? Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI are having a fantastic time consolidating their dominance. Independent AI start-ups, meanwhile, have learned a harsh lesson: it’s hard to stand out when a trillion-dollar company is right behind you, ready to steamroll.
Capital is still pouring in, but much of it feels like throwing darts at the board. Offshoots and niche applications have a chance. Fully independent AI ventures? Not so much.
The industry’s knowledge base remains alarmingly shallow, leading to questionable valuations and incomplete business cases. In short: we’re still in the ‘wild guesses’ phase of AI investing. Expect more consolidation, fewer moonshots, and a few poor souls realising their AI “start-up” is just a fancy macro in Excel.
4. Data Centres: Because the Internet Isn’t Going to Host Itself
Major tech behemoths are on a tear. They are building 100 data centres per year, each, for the next decade. Why? Because videos, computing demand, AI workloads, and your 15th re-watch of Friends are all driving explosive traffic growth.
The biggest beneficiaries here aren’t only the flashy tech giants but also the pick-and-shovel players: processor makers, cooling system vendors, and the unsung heroes of database architecture etc. If you thought Nvidia’s rise was impressive, consider this: 70% of their sales come from data centres…..
In the modern digital economy, hosting isn’t optional.
5. Technology Roll-Ups: The Resurrection of Struggling Start-ups
Remember the 2020-2022 investment boom? Neither do VCs – it’s all a blur of Zoom calls and questionable cap tables. Now we’re seeing the aftermath: too many start-ups, too small, too slow, and in some cases, downright stagnant.
Enter: the roll-up strategy. PE firms are licking their chops, consolidating verticals and building larger, more stable companies out of subscale start-ups. It’s Darwinism for the tech world, where only the strong – or the well-rolled – survive.
With billions in dry PE powder waiting to be deployed, consolidation plays will dominate. It’s not the death of tech start-ups; it’s just the dawn of fewer, better ones.
6. AI-Driven Fraud: The Dark Side of the Digital Revolution
Here’s the inconvenient truth: 38% of all fraud is now AI-driven of some sort. That’s right – fraudsters have AI tools that can mimic your voice, perfect your grammar, and scam your grandmother before breakfast.
Phishing-as-a-Service (PhaaS) is now a thing, democratising digital crime. You don’t need technical skills to be a scammer – just a subscription and bad intentions.
The cat-and-mouse game between fraudsters and cybersecurity professionals will rage on, but let’s face it: AI has given criminals a terrifying upgrade. Welcome to the AI arms race, where the stakes are your identity and your bank account.
7. IPO Markets: An Avalanche of Pent-Up Demand
The IPO market has been bleak, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. European unicorns like Klarna, Bolt, and Revolut are ready to take the plunge, and their public listings will mean significant liquidity pay-outs for early investors in start-up hubs like Stockholm and Tallinn.
The US will remain the IPO juggernaut, but London, eager for relevance, is making a political and financial push to attract smaller cap companies.
After years of drought, the IPO floodgates may finally open – a welcome event for VCs desperate to recycle capital and a move from TVPI to DPI.
8. Defence Technology: War is Good Business (Unfortunately)
After decades in the shadows, defence tech is now hotter than TikTok dances. Global security concerns and ongoing conflicts have thrust the sector into the spotlight. Defence-tech start-ups are commanding eye-watering valuations, and defence conferences are massively oversubscribed.
But let’s ask the uncomfortable question: what happens when the wars end? Valuations built on conflict are inherently fragile. For now, though, defence tech is the belle of the ball – and everyone wants a dance.
9. VC Firms Search for a “Deeper Meaning”
After years of throwing money at marketing-driven start-ups with the lifespan of a housefly, VCs are rethinking their role. The spray-and-pray approach is out. Thoughtful investing is in.
There’s a renewed focus on solving meaningful problems – climate, health, and global infrastructure – instead of just funding the next food delivery or music app. VCs are rediscovering their purpose as agents of positive change. Call it an existential crisis, but it’s a step in the right direction.
10. Low/No-Code Software: The Hype Finally Becomes Reality
For years, software companies promised low/no-code solutions. In reality, it was all marketing fluff and armies of consultants charging $300/hour to click buttons.
Finally, the dream is here. Powered by AI, software implementation can now be done in a fraction of the time, without the dreaded consultant in tow. Productivity gains will be immense, and businesses can finally stop paying for manual automation. Yes, the irony is not lost on us.
As we step into 2025, the tech world finds itself at a crossroads. From Bitcoin’s triumph to AI’s darker uses, from IPO rebirths to venture capital soul-searching, one thing is clear: technology and its backers are searching for a new narrative.
Will they find it? Or will history repeat itself in the form of exuberance, crashes, and bubbles? Either way, it will be one hell of a ride.
Here’s to 2025. May it be bold, rational, and only mildly catastrophic.
