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Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank, on Monday suggested that concerns about economic growth are now more prominent than fears about elevated inflation.

“If you look at where we are now compared with a year ago, the balance of macro-risks has shifted from concerns about high inflation to fears over economic growth,” he said in a speech at the Frankfurt Euro Finance Week.

While the consumer price index has moved closer to the central bank’s 2% target, economic activity has fallen short of expectations, prompting the ECB to revise its projections lower, he explained.

Preliminary data showed that euro zone inflation came in at 2% in October, just ahead of expectations and above September’s 1.7%. In September, the ECB said it had revised its forecast for the annual gross domestic product for the euro zone down slightly to 0.8% in 2024.

“The growth outlook is clouded by uncertainty about economic policies and the geopolitical landscape, both in the euro area and globally. Trade tensions could rise further, increasing the risk of tail events materialising,” he said. “These cyclical headwinds compound structural issues of low productivity and weak potential euro area growth.”

— Sophie Kiderlin

The euro zone in September recorded a 12.5 billion euro ($13.2 billion) trade surplus according to a first estimate, statistics agency Eurostat said Monday.

A year earlier, the trade surplus was 9.8 billion euros.

Exports from the euro area to the rest of the world came to 237.8 billion euros in September, up 0.6% from a year earlier, while imports totaled 225.3 billion euros, 0.6% lower than in September 2023.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Around two hours into the trading day, Bavarian Nordic was among the biggest gainers on the pan-European Stoxx 600.

Shares in the pharmaceutical company were last up 8.37%, paring some of the losses recorded Friday when shares closed over 17% lower. This came after Bavarian Nordic reported an annual dip in third-quarter revenue amid volatile demand for its mpox vaccine.

Meanwhile, shares in Melrose Industries added 8.35%. The aerospace company on Monday issued a trading update, saying its revenue rose 7% in the four months from the beginning of July to the end of October compared to the same period a year earlier.

CEO Peter Dilnot said it was “encouraging” that the company was set to deliver on its full-year expectations “despite the industry-wide supply chain challenges.”

— Sophie Kiderlin

Trade tariffs proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump “could mark a significant turning point for the international system of trade,” but their impact on inflation could be limited, European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Monday.

During his campaign, Trump said he would to introduce blanket tariffs on goods exported to the U.S., no matter where they came from.

Protectionist measures like tariffs — which Nagel said have been increasing among all G20 nations — could impact geoeconomics and global integration, the ECB policymaker indicated, noting that a reversal of the latter could lead to increased inflationary pressures.

However, “although empirical studies show that the effect of global integration on domestic price dynamics is statistically significant, it appears to be economically small,” Nagel said.

“In other words, while we can be quite sure about the direction of this impact, its magnitude seems minor. Accordingly, global integration would have to decrease substantially to cause a noticeable rise in inflationary pressures. And, so far, we have not seen this,” he explained.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Ukraine’s economy grew by 1.3% year-on-year in October, the country’s ministry of economy said in a Google-translated update on Monday, citing support from the transport and construction sectors. It comes after a 3.8% increase year-on-year in September.

The GDP of war-battered Ukraine picked up by 4.2% annually in the January-October period. The economy ministry previously forecast real GDP growth of 3.5% by the end of 2024.

The transport and construction industries emerged as growth drivers in October, according to First Deputy Minister of Economy Oleksiy Sobolev.

“Thanks to the implementation of recovery programs and increased demand for construction work, the construction industry continues to demonstrate upward dynamics. Among the drivers of the growth of the country’s economy is also transport — primarily thanks to the stable operation of the grain corridor. Finally, the demand for the products of the processing industry, in particular the defense industry sector, determines the growth in this industry,” he said, while nevertheless noting a seasonal decline in agricultural activity due to the end of harvest.

— Ruxandra Iordache

European markets were mixed as the trading week kicked off on Monday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down 0.07% shortly after the session opened.

Oil and gas and tech stocks dipped around 0.3% each, while mining shares added around 0.5%.

Regional bourses were mixed, with the U.K.’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX inching higher, while France’s CAC 40 retreated slightly and Italy’s FTSE MIB fell close to 1%.

— Sophie Kiderlin

German exports rose 0.5% in the third quarter compared to the same period a year earlier, the country’s statistics office Destatis said Monday, coming to 384 billion euros ($405 billion).

The value of goods sent to countries in the European Union and euro zone fell by 1% and 1.5% respectively in the three months to the end of September, while exports to countries outside the European Union rose 2.2%.

The U.S. was the most important trade partner outside the EU, with exports rising by 3.8% to 41.4 billion euros in the third quarter. Exports to China, meanwhile, fell 9.4% to 21.8 billion euros.

— Sophie Kiderlin

European stocks were last set to rise at the market open on Monday.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was last on track to start the day 15 points higher at 8,084, Germany’s DAX was set to add 56 points to 19,278 and the French CAC 40 was due to rise 23 points to around 7,299. Italy’s FTSE MIB was also on track to open higher, adding 158 points to 34,060.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Shares of Samsung Electronics jumped on Monday after the company unveiled a surprise plan to buy back about 10 trillion South Korean won ($7.19 billion) worth of its own stock over the next 12 months.

The South Korean tech giant’s stock rose more than 7% in Seoul, after shares had already surged 7.21% on Friday, following news that the company reached a preliminary agreement with its largest workers union, which went on strike in July.

Samsung last bought back shares in November 2017, according to data maintained by LSEG.

In a regulatory filing, the company said that 3 trillion won of shares will be initially bought back in the next three months and canceled.

Read the full story here.

— Lim Hui Jie

Top Morningstar strategist David Sekera says one sector is trading at a 5% discount and is set to “do well, especially if we get into more of a reflationary environment later in 2025.”

Sekara also shared his outlook for U.S. markets in the lead up to 2025.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Amala Balakrishner