Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump may be even in the polls, but one indicator points toward an election victory for Harris.
The stock market has been rising since July – the S&P 500 3.3% since July. On Election Day it closed up more than 427 points, ending at 42,221.88. According to CNN.com, since 1944, in 18 of the 20 elections, the incumbent party won if the stock market was going up.
The concept behind the trend is that if the stock market is rising, the fears of a recession decrease, and people are confident about the economy. If the stock market is dropping, the opposite happens.
The stock market indicator has been wrong twice since 1944 – in 1968, when Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democrat Hubert Humphrey and in 1980, when Republican Ronald Reagan defeated Democrat Jimmy Carter.
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Other presidential race indicators
- Allan Lichtman, the historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has shared his prediction for this year’s White House race. He forecasts that Harris will win. In a video first reported by the New York Times, Lichtman explained that his prediction is based on a set of “thirteen keys” or true-false questions assessing the strength and performance of the incumbent party in the White House.
- Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in the 2024 race for the White House. In a Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Harris and Trump are tied and in a dead heat in each battleground state.
Was Trump or Harris leading the final presidential polls?
Heading into the final day before Election Day, Harris and Trump are tied, according to an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll.
While national polls continue to forecast a race far too close to predict, Harris was found to be leading Trump in Iowa, an unexpected reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory. Emerson College Polling/The Hill released their final swing state polls on Monday, further indicating tight races in battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan, among others.
