Key events
The breakdown of the ONS data shows that the wholesale, retail, hotels and restaurants sector posted the strongest annual regular growth rate (excluding bonuses), at 6.8%, in April to June.
The finance and business services sector, which pay out more bonuses, had the lowest annual regular growth rate, at 3.1%.
Turning to the UK labour market, which is clearly losing momentum, with employers cutting back on bonuses and hiring.
Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said:
These figures signal growing turmoil in the UK labour market, with April’s leap in employment costs and a flagging economy pushing more businesses to actively cut headcount and cap pay awards.
Wage growth is likely to weaken over the course of the year as softening economic conditions, rising redundancies and elevated staffing costs increasingly hinder pay settlements.
The UK jobs market is facing more pain in the coming months with higher labour costs likely to lift unemployment moderately higher, particularly given growing concerns over more tax rises in this Autumn’s Budget.
While these disheartening figures will reassure rate-setters that last week’s policy loosening was the right call, the pace at which the labour market is currently cooling is unlikely to be sufficient to prompt another rate cut in September.
The Bank of England cut interest rates for the fifth time in a year last Thursday amid concerns over a weakening economy, but warned that rising food prices could drive inflation to 4% (the central bank is charged with keeping inflation at 2%).
Oil prices are rising as the extended tariff truce between the US and China eased worries that an escalation of their trade war would disrupt the global economy.
Brent crude futures gained 0.4% to $66.90 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose by 0.4% to $64.20.
Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region mostly rose, with Japan’s Nikkei index hitting a record closing high and finishing 2.15% higher.
Australian stocks extended their gains for a second day, and also reached a new intra-day all-time high. China is the main export destination for Australian goods.
Introduction: US and China extend 90-day tariff truce; UK jobless rate steady, vacancies fall
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The US and China have extended their truce on trade tariffs for another 90 days, staving off triple-digit duties on imports just as US retailers start stockpiling for the key end-of-year holiday season.
Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that he signed the executive order for the extension, and that “all other elements of the Agreement will remain the same”. Beijing’s Commerce Ministry announced the extension of the tariff pause early on Tuesday.
Trump’s executive order stated:
The United States continues to have discussions with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns.
Through these discussions, the PRC continues to take significant steps towards remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States relating to economic and national security matters.
The tariff pause was due to expire on Tuesday at 12:01am EDT. The extension until November will be welcomed by US retailers who are now able to buy electronics, toys and other products at lower tariff rates ahead of Christmas.
Trump had threatened tariffs on Chinese goods imports of up to 145% while Chinese duties on US goods were set to hit 125%.
“We’ll see what happens,” the US president said at a news conference on Monday, flagging what he called his good relationship with Chinese president Xi Jinping.
China said the extension was “a measure to further implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state during their 5 June call”.
The UK labour market continues to cool, according to the latest official figures. Regular pay growth in the UK held steady at 5% but wage growth slowed once bonuses are included, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.7% and vacancies fell again.
The Office for National Statistics said average wages, excluding bonuses, grew by 5% between April and June, the same pace as in the three months to May, while total pay growth including bonuses slowed to 4.6% from 5%.
Vacancies fell by 44,000 between May and July. The statistics office said feedback suggests “some firms may not be recruiting new workers or replacing workers who have left”.
At lunchtime UK time, we’ll be getting the latest US inflation data.
The Agenda