New research claims illegal migrants crossing the English Channel are “24 times more likely” to end up in prison in the UK than the average British person. The research found rates of incarceration were significantly higher among nationalities which make up the majority of people making the perilous small boat crossings from France.
The Conservative Party analysis found Somalians, Afghans, Iraqis, Albanians, and Iranians were more likely to serve time in prison than citizens of the United Kingdom. The study suggests 3.4% of migrants crossing the Channel over the past year could go to prison, a rate that is 24 times that of a British person and 18 times more than the average for a migrant arriving in the UK via another means.
This week, more than 20,000 migrants made the crossing from France to the UK, the fastest time that figure has been reached in a year.
According to The Times, the Conservative Party study is based on the population of foreign criminals in the prison system in England and Wales, which sits at around 10,838. People with dual nationality are not counted in the research.
The last national census found there were 5.9 million people with a foreign passport living in the UK, and 0.18% were in prison. However, as of March 2025, there were 250 Somalians in jail, around 12% of all the people in the UK with a Somalian passport, and using the same measure, it was 6% for Albanians, 2.7% for Iraqi nationals and 1.6% for Iranians. People from these countries make up the vast majority of those making small boat crossings.
Chris Philp, the Shadow Home Secretary, said: “This data shows the Government’s loss of border control is putting the public at risk. Those from the main nationalities arriving are far more likely to commit crime and end up in prison than the general population.
“The illegal immigrants crossing the Channel are unvetted, unknown and uncontrolled. And now it is clear they are much more likely to commit serious crime. They are therefore a danger to the public.
The government must immediately and without court process remove those arriving to a location outside Europe. The crossings would then soon end.
“This approach worked in Australia and it would work here. Labour made a huge mistake by cancelling the Rwanda deterrent just before it was due to start, and now they are exposing the public to danger. This flood of illegal immigration has to stop.”
The Home Office dispute the analysis and said the data does not take into account foreign criminals who commit crimes while visiting the UK.
A Home Office spokesman said: “The comparison of these two data sets is completely unfounded. It is inappropriate to apply foreign imprisonment rates to small boat arrival data, as these consist of very different groups of people.”
Some 440 people made the journey in eight boats on Tuesday, bringing the total for 2025 so far to 20,422, Home Office figures confirmed.
This is up 50% on this point last year (13,574) and 79% higher than at this stage in 2023 (11,433). It is the earliest point in a calendar year at which the 20,000 mark has been passed since data on Channel crossings was first reported in 2018.
Last year, the figure was passed on August 28, and in 2023, it was on August 29.
The first year in which at least 20,000 arrivals were recorded was 2022, when the milestone was passed on August 14, and the total went on to hit a record 45,774 by the end of December.
The figures come as Channel crossings continued on Wednesday, with pictures showing migrants in life jackets and blankets disembarking a Border Force vessel in Dover, Kent.
Cabinet minister Pat McFadden told LBC on Wednesday, “everyone in Government knows it’s a big challenge”.
The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster said: “We are going to have to work harder to bring the numbers down. Everyone in Government knows it’s a big challenge, and as a team we are determined to meet it.”
