Stocks were mixed Thursday and oil rose as traders kept a nervous eye on the Iran-Israel ceasefire, while the dollar dropped after Donald Trump said he had a handful of candidates to succeed Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, fuelling rate cut bets.
Uncertainty over the US president’s trade war was also keeping sentiment subdued, with most countries still not reaching deals with Washington to avert the reimposition of steep tariffs ahead of a July 9 deadline.
With a shaky ceasefire between Iran and Israel holding for now, Trump said he would hold nuclear talks with Tehran next week, even after insisting that US strikes had set its atomic programme back “decades”.
“We may sign an agreement. I don’t know,” he told reporters.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had said Tuesday his country was willing to return to negotiations but that it would continue to “assert its legitimate rights” to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
Crude prices, which tanked Monday and Tuesday after the ceasefire was announced, climbed for a second day, though gains were capped by the possibility that OPEC and other key producers will lift output.
“While the Israel-Iran conflict is now de-escalating, we still believe that geopolitical risks remain where the ceasefire could easily fall apart,” wrote Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar.
“While this possibility remains elevated, we do not believe that there would be a restriction on oil supply even under a re-escalating scenario. Given that oil has retreated to preconflict price levels, we believe that any future increase in oil price is likely to be short-lived.”
Equity markets were mixed, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul and Manila in the red, while Tokyo, Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai, Bangkok, Jakarta and Wellington were in positive territory.
London, Paris and Frankfurt all advanced in the morning.
That came after a tepid lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq was the standout after chip titan Nvidia shot up more than four percent to a record high, giving it a market valuation of around $3.76 trillion. That makes it more valuable than Microsoft, Apple and other tech giants.
The dollar extended losses after Trump’s latest salvo against Powell and suggestion that he was already lining up his replacement.
Since returning to the White House the president has constantly hit out at the Fed boss for not cutting rates, questioning his intelligence and stoking worries about the bank’s independence.
“I know within three or four people who I’m going to pick,” he told reporters after a NATO summit.
“I mean he goes out pretty soon fortunately because I think he’s terrible,” Trump said of Powell, whose term ends in May next year.
Trump added that Powell was “average mentally” and had “low IQ for what he does”.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Republican was considering making an announcement in September or October, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh among the contenders.
Trump’s remarks came days after Powell told lawmakers the bank needed to see the impact of the president’s tariffs on the economy before making a move.
“Trump will seek yes man who will cut — he’s already been calling for rates to be 2-3 points lower,” said Neil Wilson at Saxo Markets.
“The Fed is staying cautious on rates right now, but if we get a shadow Fed chair in the autumn saying he will slash rates as soon as possible (ie May 2026), you will see inflation fears rise and markets will sell long-dated bonds and push the dollar lower.”
– Key figures at around 0810 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.7 percent at 39,584.58 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.6 percent at 24,325.40 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,448.45 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 8,722.71
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1703 from $1.1656 on Wednesday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3733 from $1.3664
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 144.05 yen from 145.32 yen
Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.23 pence from 85.26 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $65.03 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.2 percent at $67.82 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 42,982.43 (close)
dan/mtp
