JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM indicates that the worst of the U.S. equity correction may be over, with credit markets indicating a reduced likelihood of a recession, per Bloomberg, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. According to strategists Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and Mika Inkinen, credit markets — proven accurate over the past two years — are currently more optimistic than equity and rate markets about U.S. economic health, as quoted on the above-mentioned article.
Diverging Market Expectations
JPMorgan’s analysis reveals a stark contrast between asset classes. While small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to domestic growth, imply a 50% probability of a U.S. recession, credit markets suggest a significantly lower probability of 9% to 12%.
Note that concerns over a likely U.S. economic contraction have driven stocks close to correction territory. Several banks, including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, have recently downgraded their outlooks on U.S. equities due to growth fears. Prominent market forecasters, such as Ed Yardeni, have also moderated their previously bullish projections for 2025.
Inside Market Volatility
The S&P 500 has declined nearly 9% from its record high in February, worsened by uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies and ongoing government job cuts. Meanwhile, tech stocks have entered correction territory.
Potential Support From ETF Inflows and Rebalancing
Despite recent market challenges, support could emerge from continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Additionally, mutual funds, U.S. defined benefit pension funds and sovereign wealth investors may contribute up to $135 billion in equity purchases as part of their month- or quarter-end rebalancing activities.
ETFs Gaining Assets
ETFs like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO, ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ, SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF BIL and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF LQD have been gaining assets lately. These ETFs may bounce back once the market stabilizes.
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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