Satellite imagery collected by Maxar on Dec. 13 suggests Russia is preparing to scale back its military presence in Syria.
Two AN-124 heavy military transport planes were spotted at Khmeimim air base, located in Latakia on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, with their nose cones lifted, signaling readiness to load cargo. A Ka-52 attack helicopter was also being dismantled, likely in preparation for transport, while components of an S-400 air defense system were being packed up.
Imagery from the Tartus naval base, also on the Mediterranean coast, showed minimal changes. Photos taken earlier in the week revealed two Russian frigates stationed off the coast, with no major activity suggesting an immediate departure, according to CNN.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the activity as part of a larger consolidation effort at Khmeimim and the nearby Tartus naval base. “In short, a withdrawal is underway,” Kofman wrote on X.
Russia was reportedly evacuating its forces from Syria as one of its military bases faced siege, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reported on Dec. 10. HUR claimed that Russian troops in Syria are voicing frustration with their commanders over what they described as a chaotic withdrawal process.
The Kremlin emphasized the importance of securing its military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying on Dec. 11 that Moscow has maintained contact with Syria’s new leadership. He declined to disclose the number of Russian troops in the country or comment on potential evacuations.
Russia has maintained a military presence in Syria since 2015, primarily to support now overthrown Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime during the country’s civil war. Damascus has been supportive of the Kremlin during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
The collapse of Assad’s regime shows the limits of Russian airpower
After a decade-long civil war, Bashar al-Assad was firmly ensconced in Damascus — a far cry from the summer of 2012 and again in 2015, when policymakers, analysts, and pundits alike believed his rule was on the brink of collapse. The intervention of the Russian Air Force in the fall of
